Information about the EnergyQuest Australian LNG Monthly is available by clicking here.
| What’s in a forecast? National energy laws now require government agencies to take account of jurisdictional greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, in addition to the existing considerations of price, quality, safety, reliability and security of energy and energy services. AEMO’s forecasts are now based on scenarios that start at the end goal of carbon reductions, and work backwards. EnergyQuest asks what are the implications for Australia of not taking a clear-eyed and objective view of the data in considering how the energy system might evolve, and what energy sources might be in demand in scenarios that don’t conform to government policy objectives but better reflect reality? Australian LNG imports are looking more likely The prospects for LNG imports to supply Australia’s east coast market got a boost this month with at least two terminals making positive progress. In NSW, Squadron Energy said its Port Kembla Energy Terminal would be ready to supply the east coast in the winter of 2025 if needed, and if state or federal governments acted immediately, but that it views winter 2026 as more likely based on market feedback. Meanwhile, in Victoria, Viva Energy has submitted updated environmental studies to the Victorian government to support the approval of its LNG import project at the site of the Geelong Refinery. Monthly statistical summary Australia shipped 81.7 Mt of LNG during the financial year 2023-24, bringing in total revenue of $69.5 billion. This compares to the previous financial year when Australian shipments were marginally lower in volume terms (81.9 Mt for 2022-23), but significantly lower in monetary terms, being 25% less than the total revenue of $92.2 billion in 2022-23, during a year of elevated international prices. However, the results for financial year 2023-24 compare very favourably with those of the 2021-22 financial year, when total shipments were 82.5 Mt, and total revenue was $70.6 billion. EnergyQuest estimates that Australian LNG export revenue in June was $5.66 billion, more than the $5.47 billion in May, reflecting a 5% increase compared to June 2023 when revenue was $5.40 billion. WA projects earned export revenue of $3.38 billion, Queensland projects brought in $1.66 billion, and NT projects earned $0.62 billion. Overall, Australia’s June 2024 shipments were 81.5 Mtpa on an annualised basis, compared to 81.1 Mtpa for the calendar year 2023 and 75.3 Mtpa for May 2024. June 2024 shipments represented 92% of nameplate capacity. Gas flows from Queensland reached 428 TJ/d on 13 June. This was a record daily rate south since at least January 2020 (our earliest data point at hand), and confirms that additional capacity on the pipeline is operational, as prior to June there were no daily flows noted above 400 TJ/d. The record gas flows to the south from Queensland were required to support gas-fired power generation (GPG) during a ‘wind drought’ and lower solar production in winter. Gas used for GPG increased 93% in June 2024 compared to June 2023. This led to an increase in spot market gas prices of 19.7% compared to May, and 29.7% compared to June 2023. The average spot price in June 2023 was $15.98/GJ, 33% above the $12/GJ government cap. The Northern Gas Pipeline in June had no flow from NT to Queensland, as it did in May. The issues at Blacktip have required substantial support from Darwin’s two LNG projects into the NT domestic market. For the month of June, Darwin LNG averaged 16 TJ/d (this is 25% of the NT average annual demand rate for 2023) to the domestic NT market. No gas flows were noted from Ichthys. |