Notwithstanding the headlines about an east coast gas crisis, the current crisis is more an electricity crisis than a gas crisis. Electricity demand has increased but coal generation has fallen due to coal outages and closures and problems with coal supply in NSW. Renewables have only been able to partially fill the gap so gas-use has jumped from supplying 6% of NEM generation in May 2021 to 9% in May 2022, with predictable gas price consequences
There has not been any big change in LNG exports. In May 2022 the east coast exported 1.98 million tonnes of LNG, down slightly from 2.07 Mt in April and the same as 1.98 Mt in May 2021.
A summary of the NEM generation data for May 2022 compared to May 2021 is set out below:
Coal down by 7.8% (-0.9 TWh)
Gas up 55% from 6.1% to 9.2% (+0.6 TWh)
Solar up 5.2% (+81 GWh)
Wind up 9.0% (+0.2 TWh)
Hydro up 27.4% (+0.4 TWh)
Total generation up 2% (+0.3 TWh)
The chart below from AEMO shows the increasing volume of coal generator outages in the NEM.
