EnergyQuest has released its sixth annual analysis of the east coast and Northern Territory gas industry.
The East Coast Gas Outlook 2024, finds that east coast gas is now entering ‘uncharted energy frontiers’.
Gas supply shortfalls are expected for the east coast as soon as 2026, and with increasing certainty and impact from 2028. That much is well known.
EnergyQuest’s report finds that future gas supply issues are even more acute when the seasonal winter peaks of Victoria and NSW are considered. These two states will be reliant on LNG imports within a few short years, or there simply won’t be enough gas supply to meet demand, and gas users will be unable to source gas at any price.
The analysis shows there is only enough supply to meet 70% of NSW/ACT demand in the winters of 2026, 2027, and 2028, without LNG imports (or some otherwise, as yet unidentified gas source).
Victoria has for decades been supplied by large offshore gas fields but these are running out. From Winter 2028, demand forecasts require 32% of Victoria’s gas supply from LNG imports, increasing to 42% in 2029, and to more than half at 55% in 2030.
By 2034 LNG imports are needed to supply more than half of demand in the Southern Region (NSW/ACT, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania).
Current government policy settings and project investment trends are not addressing the imminent seasonal shortfalls.
We are truly in uncharted waters – and the destination is lost in the fog of polarised arguments.
At more than 310 pages of analysis, the report reviews in detail each of the gas reserves/resources on the east coast and Northern Territory, matches it with the expected demand to 2050, and calculates the price outlook for this period. The analysis is supported with an Excel file with 58 worksheets of detailed models and data.