West Coast Gas Outlook 2024 – Calm before the storm?
EnergyQuest’s West Coast Gas Outlook 2024 brings together the most comprehensive data, forecasts, and analysis available on the Western Australia domestic gas market.
The new report released by independent energy consultancy EnergyQuest, West Coast Gas Outlook 2024 – Calm before the storm?, shows that WA’s domestic gas market is likely to see significant supply shortfalls from 2029.
- The West Coast Gas Outlook 2024 shows the WA Government didn’t need to make major changes to its Domestic Gas Policy to ensure sufficient domestic gas supply over the next four years, but we are in the calm before the storm and changes to the Policy are on the cards from 2029.
- Gas supply into the 2030s will be important as WA’s large gas users are unlikely to reduce gas use over the next decade. Gas is the only option for many users, and while low emissions alternatives are under development they are unlikely to be available or implemented in the next decade. The WA Government’s policy to close coal fired power generation is also likely to add significantly to demand as domestic gas supply peaks and starts to decline.
- New supply from the Scarborough project and Perth Basin will be important in coming years, but beyond those projects there aren’t many options for increasing domestic supply other than to rely even more on LNG exporters.
- Developing new supply is difficult as WA, and Australia more broadly, has low exploration levels, and there is a lack of undeveloped gas resources not linked to LNG projects. Reducing demand is difficult as doing so in the next decade would likely involve project closures due to a lack of alternatives. Developing new LNG resources with new domestic supply obligations could make a major difference but has become difficult and uncertain in Australia. The North West Shelf, which has for decades underpinned WA’s gas supply, is in decline.
The West Coast Gas Outlook 2024 includes updated supply and demand forecasts now extended to 2050. This longer-term view indicates the structural shortfall from 2029 could become substantial in coming decades. Aggressive assumptions are required to significantly reduce gas demand by 2050, and if carbon capture and storage is adopted by WA’s large gas users, demand will remain resilient.
The Outlook also includes price forecasts based on an EnergyQuest model developed specifically for the WA gas market.
The 216 page report is the leading energy consultancy’s latest annual, in-depth analysis of the long-term outlook for the west coast gas market, compiled by a multidisciplinary team of experienced energy professionals: geologists, petroleum engineers and gas marketers.
The media release for the West Coast Gas Outlook 2024 report can be found in the link below.
Contact EnergyQuest if you would like to speak to the author and discuss any aspects of the report.